Innovation & Growth: Corona Analysis

Main Messages

The European and Chinese epidemic branches diverged already in late November 2019. As a result, 80% of the European outbreak occurred independently of and parallel to the Chinese outbreak in Wuhan, meaning that Europe would have experienced most of the same epidemic, even if Wuhan had not happened; for America the number is 70%
Genetic mutation history proves without ambiguity that the virus was in Europe already in December 2019; and even earlier according to Swiss, French and Italian medical doctors
Excess mortality data points towards Tyrol and Bavaria being the first large epicenters in December and January
It appears that it was four super-spreading events, the Four Hills Ski Jumping Tournament in Austria, two professional textile trade fairs in German Munich in late January, and the Fashion Week in New York City in early February, which consecutively triggered the massive European and American outbreak of covid-19
The early outbreak was hidden by an exceptionally mild influenza season in Europe and was therefore initially not detected
When public authorities noticed the epidemic by end-February, they were unprepared and in absence of better knowledge, followed a Chinese template of public policy response
Those public policies of shut-downs and contact-bans, however, proved to be non-effective; voluntary social distancing responses and a natural tendency of the virus to fade away, were responsible for most of the outcome by April 2020. The public policy that would have been effective, which is ubiquitous testing and tracing, was not deployed in Europe nor the Americas.
The virus remains in circulation and the epidemic will therefore return in the same stealthy way by December 2020 as it did in 2019
Gaining a better understanding of the transmission dynamics and history is critically important to be able to manage the on-going economic, social, cultural and political effects of the epidemic. This must also be considered by business leaders
Business leaders need to shape their strategies with a view towards the strong likelihood of a second or third wave of outbreaks occurring, especially considering that the public sector may be even less capable of effective responses in 2021.